Coin-Flips

I played poker with Tarot cards last night.  I got a full house and four people died.  -- Steven Wright.

In poker, the player who bets the most wins.  The cards are just used to break the ties.  -- Overheard at a table recently.

I spent last weekend in Las Vegas.  Actually it was a work-related trip, so I didn't have an opportunity to play much poker, but of course I did play some.  I was staying at Harrah's, so I played there mostly.  I stopped by Treasure Island's little poker room too for a little while.  I tried a couple of times to get into the Venetian, but the wait list was so long that both times I just gave up and went back to Harrah's.

This wasn't really a problem though.  The games at Harrah's are really soft, and even though the limits are low, I can sometimes make more at a $1/$3 NL game there than I can at, say, the $8/$16 limit game at Bellagio.  I played a tournament there once last year, something called a "bounty tournament".  I paid $100 to buy in, and got $10 back for every player I knocked out.  There were around 40 players total in the tournament, and I took out eight of them!  So I was nearly free-rolling even before I made it into the money.  I finished in third place and took down a decent prize.

So while I was there last weekend, I did end up playing a tournament there.  It was not a bounty, just a $100 buy-in standard tournament.  I think there were around 30 players total who played the tournament.

There's a saying that to win a poker tournament, you need to win the coin-flips.  That means when you and an opponent both have a roughly 50-50 chance of winning (say, two overcards versus a small pair), you have to win more of those "coin-flips" than you lose.  I think it's probably true.

At this point in my poker experience, I fully expect that in any tournament I enter, I should make it into the top half of finishers every time.  If I don't at least achieve this, I've almost certainly played extremely poorly.  So top-half is my baseline expectation.

On the other hand, if I'm playing very well, I should make it into the top quarter.  This is where I ended up during last year's WSOP Main Event.  But that still won't make it into the money, which usually pays just the top 10-15% of players.  So to get to that point, that's where the luck in involved.  That's where I need to win the coin-flips.

In the tournament I played last weekend, I found myself in three coin-flip situations.  I lost all three of them, and finished in ninth place (they had just assembled the final table and I was the first one out).  So I finished out of the money.

I think it speaks well of my game that I was able to survive not just one coinflip, but two.  It took three of those situations to knock me out.

The first time was early in the tournament.  I had just knocked out one player and was one of the overall chip leaders.  I held pocket fives in the big blind; the small blind (who was seriously short-stacked) went all-in with Ace-Queen, and I called.  A Queen flopped, and he doubled up.  I was knocked down to average chipstack size ... not a big hit in the grand scheme of things, but a coinflip loss nevertheless.

The second time, I had Ace-Queen in the big blind and called the all-in of a short-stacked guy with pocket Jacks.  The board bricked out, and now I was down to a short stack.

The final coinflip was when I raised pre-flop from early position with Ace-Jack.  It's not a move I recommend, but I was pretty short-stacked now and I had to start making some moves.  I was called by a lady with pocket Eights.  A third (and rather redundant) eight came on the river, and I was out.  She went on to take second place in the tournament, so I guess I shouldn't feel that bad about it.

Next week is the World Poker Challenge at the Grand Sierra Resort in Reno, and I am taking some time off work to go play in it.  It used to be a World Poker Tour event, but it isn't any more.  There are actually seven tournaments that will be played while I'm there, although I'll probably only play in two or three of them.  I'm hoping to spend sometime downtown while I'm there, because I remember last time I was there the games were ridiculously soft.  It's also where (I think) I played a poker game against Jamie Gold, before he won the Main Event.  I'm really looking forward to the experience!

Sometimes Slowplaying Works!

I had posted recently about how dangerous it can be to slowplay and how I rarely do it.  Well, here is an example of a hand that I slowplayed, and it allowed me to completely felt my opponent.

This was a $2/$5 no-limit table.  I had not been at the table very long, so I didn’t have good reads on very many folks.  But when you are dealt pocket Kings on the button like I was, reading your opponent isn’t necessarily a critical skill.  My opponent was two off the big blind and called the $5.  It was folded all the way to me, so I raised to $20.  The blinds folded and my opponent called.

The flop could not have been more perfect.  It was King, Eight, Eight rainbow.  So I had flopped the (second) nuts.  The only hand my opponent could have that beat me was a pair of eights.  But there are hardly any hands he could have that could stand any bet from me!  So when he checked, I checked behind.

The turn was a Seven.  Still nothing I could bet at, so when my opponent checked, I checked behind again.  (Obviously I was going to be the river, regardless of what came off.)

When the river came deuce, my opponent put out $30.  I raised to $80, and he quickly went all-in (around $300).  I had him covered and called.  He proudly turned over his pocket deuces for a rivered full house, and was sad to see my Kings filled a bigger boat.  I took in a pot of over $300, and my opponent hit the rail.

Barely a few hands later, same table, even the same seat, new player.

I was third from the blinds and the first into the pot with pocket Jacks, so I raised to $15.  My only caller was the small blind.

The flop was three low cards – Six, Five, Deuce rainbow.  He checked, I bet $30, and he raised to $60.  This made me a bit cautious … I was ready to toss my hand but decided to pay for the turn and called.

The turn was a third Jack!  My opponent bet $50.  I didn’t know whether he was on a straight draw or something, so I raised it to $200 (he only had about $150 left).  My opponent thought for a long time, and spent a lot of time looking at me.  Finally he said, “So, do you have pocket Jacks?”  What am I supposed to say??  I’m sure that if I had said “yes” he would have folded.  I also knew at that point that I had an unbeatable hand.  Anyhow, I just said “No” and looked away.

He must have believed me, because he called the all-in.  The river was a Queen, and he showed his pocket Tens.  I showed my trip Jacks and took the $500+ pot.

He expressed his disappointment with the fact that I had mis-remembered my hand.  I would have offered him my heartfelt condolences, but I was too busy stacking up my chips.

Some Upcoming Poker

I'm going to be on the road playing some poker tournaments this spring; trips specifically (and solely) for poker.  I'm kind of excited about it, it's putting a toe into the water of what it would be like to actually be a poker pro and travel all over playing the major tournaments.  I've already mentioned the World Poker Open in Reno and the Poker Round-up in Pendleton.  I'm also going to Las Vegas next weekend, for a quick weekend away, actually a work-related trip of sorts and I'm not actually sure how much poker I'm going to get in.

I've also looked over the WSOP tournament schedule, and I'm definitely going to be playing some of the early ones.  I've decided I won't play the Main Event this year, but instead take the money and play four or five of the smaller buy-in tournaments; maybe more.  I actually have some plans made that conflict with the Main Event dates, so if nothing else would have, that would have been the determining factor.  On the other hand, I suppose that if I win a cheap satellite into it, I might blow off the personal trip and play the event instead.

I will be playing the $1000 buy-in that starts May 30.  It's a four-day event; they must be expecting several thousand entrants.  It will certainly be a taste of the Main Event.  And get this -- I got a "deluxe" room at the Rio for $40/night!  Can you believe it?  I know that I have a lot of Harrah's points, but even so, they must truly be hurting to give their rooms away for that cheap.

Here's a hand to chew on in the meantime.  It's a huge suck-out story.

I was in the big blind of a $2/$5 no-limit game.  Three limpers came in; the small blind completed; and I checked holding Queen/Five of Spades.

The flop came Queen of Hearts, Four of Hearts, Queen of Diamonds.  So I had flopped trips, although with a rotten kicker and a dangerous board.  I bet $12 into the $25 pot (I probably should have bet more).  But the bet had the desired effect, chasing everybody out but the button, who called.

The turn was the Six of Diamonds.  This time, I put $24 into the pot, and again the button called.  I couldn't figure out what he might have, other than a draw.

Well, if he was drawing, he got there on the river.  A third heart came.  But ... it was the Five of Hearts!  So, his heart flush (if he had it) was loser to my rivered full house.  Sweet!  I bet $60 and he raised me all-in for another $170 or so (I had him covered).  I was happy to oblige.

That's when I saw that he actually held the Queen of Clubs/Ten of Spades!  So, basically, I was behind the entire hand until the river Five saved me.  My 7% win actually came in!  As I was dragging in the pot of a little over $500, I promised myself (again) never to whine about bad beats any more.

Slowplay Yourself Into Oblivion

I like to slowplay on occasion, just like anybody else.  But I use it much more rarely than most folks do.  If there's any draw on the board, even if I have a great hand like trips, I will bet it and take the smaller pot rather than check and give the free card that beats me to my opponent.  I'm more likely to slowplay when the flop is complete garbage, I have a monster hand, and realize that there's no way my opponent will call anything unless he can catch up.

(One hand I almost never slowplay is a straight.  It is just way too vulnerable to draw-outs.)

Here's an example from a recent hand that proves my point.  It was a $2/$5 no-limit table.  I was the "cutoff" seat with pocket Queens; the big blind had pocket Nines.  Preflop, it was folded all the way to me, so I raised it to $15.  The button called (I don't know what he had) and so did the big blind.

The flop came Ace-Nine-Deuce -- all Hearts!  Now, here is where my opponent (the big blind) lost the pot.  He had flopped a set of Nines on a draw-heavy board -- and checked!!  I can promise you, with all those hearts and the Ace overcard, I wouldn't have called a one-cent flop bet.  So the flop was checked all the way around and we went to the turn.

Guess what?  The turn was a Queen.  So now I was set-over-set against the guy.  And now that he was basically drawing dead, that's when he put in his bet.  He put $15 into a $45 pot (way too little for so many reasons).  Me, being no dummy, immediately raised the pot ($60).  The button folded; the big blind called.

The river was the Ace of Clubs.  So now we were looking at full house over full house.  The big blind bet roughly $60; I raised to $160; he went all-in for about $400 (I had him covered), so I called and took the pot.

He had nobody to blame but himself for losing a pot that should have been his.  Granted, the flop pot only held about $45, but if you'd asked him whether he would have rather won $45 or lost over $500 I can guess what his answer would have been!